Water Astra RangerTier 2
at Taichung Regional
decks
4
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
8-10-4
overall winrate
45.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
47.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1279
· median 1184
· range 1170–1576
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1170
Q3 1365
1730
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.0% | -13.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Water Fractal | 6.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.4% | +6.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.6% | 5 | 1-1-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +1.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.6% | +13.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.4% | +6.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Water Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
